Submitted By Michael Hahn
Amidst endless news stories, social media posts, and political commentary, the question arises: Why are we so partisan in 2024? One side attributes it to the left-leaning bias of the corporate news media, while the other points to claims of bias, racism, and hatred fueling the conversation. I’d like to present a theory that nobody ever speaks about, and its tie to the March 5th Primary for the Republican Town Committee.
For my example, let’s consider the largest legislative body in the country, the US House, the Cook Political Index, and straightforward arithmetic. Some explanation is in order.
The Cook Political Index (CPI) rates each Congressional District by Party, using terms like “Leans Democrat,” “Toss Up,” or “Solid Republican.” These terms stem from a rating system ranking a Congressional District based on its ideological tendencies. A rating of 0 would indicate a complete 50/50 tossup, while a +30 would signify a safe district. Currently, the highest-ranking CPI districts in the United States are CA-12 (Barbara Lee; Oakland CPI D+40) and AL-04 (Robert Aderholt; North Central AL CPI R+33). Mainstream examples of high-profile House seats would be Nancy Pelosi (CA-11; CPI D+37) and Marjorie Taylor Green (GA-14; CPI R +22). These are considered “Solid Districts.” Our Congressional District is CT-4, held by Jim Himes with a CPI of D+13 (Likely Democrat, the next tier of ranking under “Solid”).
Why is this important? Of the 435 US House of Representative Districts, 413 have CPI rankings of “Safe or Likely”(R-210; D-203). Among those CPI “safe or likely” rated districts, none are held by a member of the opposing party.
The highest-rated CPI districts held by an opposing party for the GOP are CA-27 held by Mike Garcia with a CPI of D +4 and AK-AL (Alaska at large) held by Mary Pelotas with a ranking of R+8*.
So the likelihood of capturing a CPI double-digit ranked House seat is minimal. The best performance of an opposing candidate was CO-3, in which the Democrat lost by 0.02% (R+7), however, that race also had outside complications. Essentially, 95% of the entire US House is determined strictly by party affiliation through the primary process, and a shockingly low 22 (5%) are determined by the general election.
How does this tie into primaries? In 95% of the county, the general election is moot, so the Primary determines the winner. Primaries are generally held in August or September (or in this case March) and have extremely low turnout, mostly by very passionate individuals. The likelihood of an incumbent losing a primary to a challenger from their extreme flank is high.
Take the victory of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, for example. She won a primary that had a turnout of 21% compared to that of a general election. In essence, the polarity of both parties determines the winner.
This ties into the conversation as most incumbents must protect their flank as opposed to making decisions for the whole of their constituents.
In our own District, Jim Himes votes with Joe Biden 99.1% of the time. I’ve met Mr. Himes, I can’t imagine a Rhodes Scholar like himself believing in fringe ideas such as Furries Rights. However, he appears to like his job. If he were to venture even a slight bit away from the progressive line, he could be facing a challenger from the Democratic Socialist party, who would have an excellent chance of unseating him in a Primary (see 2006 CT-US Senate).
For those looking for outside reading, I recommend Dead Center by Jason Altmire. Mr. Almire (PA-04 D) won a CPI toss-up rated district in 2008. Within 24 hours of being sworn into office, Rahm Emanuel was threatening primary challengers in the next election cycle had Altmire not gotten in line with the Obama agenda. The same currently holds true with the America First members of the House; if they are not brought into line, they risk losing their jobs.
This dynamic creates a toxic environment that favors bombastic extremism over collaboration. There is a fix, however. If you are a registered party member, vote in your Primaries. Don’t wait until a general election to choose the lesser of all evils.
There is a primary election for the Republican Town Committee being held in Greenwich in Districts 2, 4, 5, 8, and 9 on March 5th.
If you are a Registered Republican, let your voice be heard and participate in the true democratic process.
Michael Hahn
Michael is a Candidate for RTC in District 5 at Riverside School. He is running on a slate with Jerry Cincotta, Andy Duus, Marc Johnson, and Paul Olmstead. He encourages you to vote for the 5 of them on March 5th at Riverside Elementary