Submitted by Dan Quigley, Greenwich
America is less than one month away from one of, if not the most consequential Presidential election in my lifetime. As we approach this pivotal moment in our nation’s history, we face the specter that our election system will be under attack and tested in ways we have not seen before. If Mr. Trump loses what will almost certainly be a very closely contested election, it is my fear that we could see a repeat of the events of January 6th, 2021, only significantly more widespread and dangerous.
The most ardent of Mr. Trump’s followers have come to discuss him in almost messianic terms. This predilection went into overdrive following the attempted assassination on the former President this past July. Mr. Trump has said that “God alone” saved him from the would-be assassin’s bullet and far-right social media personalities have amplified this belief to millions of their followers. Mr. Trump’s proxies contend that he was spared by divine intervention so that he could conquer the “fascists” and “communists” who oppose him and “fix” America in a way that only he can.
Elected Republicans, who have “bent the knee” have pitched in as well. Arkansas’ Republican Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders embodied that effort when she said that “Not even an assassin’s bullet can stop him. God Almighty intervened, because America is one nation under God,and he is certainly not finished with President Trump.”
Should he lose, this level of religious zealotry could produce an angry, if not fanatical reaction among his MAGA supporters. If enough of them are conditioned to take as gospel that Mr. Trump was “anointed” by God to return to the Oval Office, a loss may be so wretched an outcome to them that it simply will not be tolerated. Unfortunately, many of his supporters view this as a “zero sum” election in the extreme. If Trump loses, they lose everything. He laid the groundwork for this by repeatedly saying things like “If we don’t win this election, I don’t think you’re going to have another election in this country.” This should be a concern to all of us.
The danger of portraying Mr. Trump as a messiah in unison with promises of doomsday scenarios, rampant election denialism and conspiracy theories makes for a potent and menacing combination.
Mr. Trump himself recently posted a video entitled “God Made Trump” on social media (it is also commonly shown at his rallies). In it he is depicted as having been chosen by God to “wrestle the deep state” and “fight the Marxists”. At one point, the video’s narrator says, “On June 14, 1946, God looked down on his planned paradise and said, ‘I need a caretaker.’ So, God gave us Trump”. This delusional thesis is not only cultish, but it also strengthens the notion among some of the most hardened MAGA true believers that the only way Mr. Trump could lose the election is if it were stolen from him by the armies of evil. By perpetuating this myth Mr. Trump is riling up his troops and sowing the seeds of chaos in the event that the results do not go his way.
Perhaps not all supporters of Mr. Trump buy into this nonsense. But rhetoric can be a powerful force, and as we saw on January 6, 2021, his words can inspire violence on a large scale. Disturbingly, there is a portion of the MAGA base who take even the most incendiary and preposterous things Mr. Trump says in a literal way. These are the folks who believe the 2020 election was stolen. They believe that a “deep state” conspiracy exists. They believe Democrats are behind the failed assassination attempts on Mr. Trump. They believe Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio ate neighbors’ pets. They also believe he is going to win on November 5th because it is pre-ordained. And they view this election as Mr. Trump’s last opportunity to be President, so their vision of America can become a reality.
Mr. Trump has repeatedly claimed that he will accept the results as long as “the election is fair and free”. Of course, “fair and free” are in the eyes of the beholder. We should have no expectations that he will concede and accept defeat in the event it happens. Instead, Mr. Trump will lay blame for any loss on what he sees as a “crooked” election system just as he did in 2020. Should he lose, he will rely on his army of attorneys and crony election boards in key battleground states to ensure that the vote tabulation process is brought to a grinding halt, delaying results. Unfortunately, this would ignore all of the work public election officials in every state have done since 2020 to make sure this election is above reproach.
Mr. Trump has never had respect for his political adversaries. He uses incendiary rhetoric, referring to them not merely as his opponents but as “enemies of the state” “Fascists” “Marxists” “Communists” and “radical left lunatics”. With his words he has cast this campaign as a cataclysmic, quasi-biblical struggle between good and evil, with himself in the role of savior. The most hardened MAGA followers hear this message loud and clear, just as they heard his call to action in the leadup to and throughout January 6th. On that day, some of them took his words as orders and acted accordingly.
Mr. Trump has famously said to his followers “I am your retribution”. The definition of “retribution” is stated as; “Punishment inflicted on someone as vengeance for a wrong or criminal act”. I seriously doubt that having a President who runs on a platform of seeking revenge against his opponents and predicts a “bloodbath” if he loses an election is what the Founders had in mind when drafting the Constitution.
In 1787, when Benjamin Franklin was asked if the new Constitution would result in a monarchy or republic, he responded, “A republic if you can keep it.” When the next President is inaugurated, our republic will have survived 236 years. During that time, it has outlasted recessions, depressions, world wars, internal disputes and seen the peaceful transfer of Presidential power after each election with the unfortunate exception of 2021.
Presidential elections are not “zero sum” events where your side loses everything if the other side wins. That may be the end result in a dictatorship, but it is not so in a democratic republic. This election, while meaningful as every Presidential election is, will likely result in a divided government, just like the last one. Dividend government requires compromise, and compromise is not a “zero sum” outcome. Compromise may not meet everyone’s definition of a win, but it has served the country well for 236 years. I pray that whatever the result of this election, the potential for chaos I have outlined above does not materialize, and I fervently hope that this election will be an outward manifestation of what has always made the American republic, “the bright shining city on the hill.”. If we are confronted with another January 6th, I’m afraid it will weaken our standing worldwide and embolden those who see autocratic government as a path to a better future.