Submitted by the Central Middle School PTA Executive Board 2025-2026
To The Members of The Board Of Education:
Thank you for taking the time last week to listen to the Central Middle School teachers, students, and parents. They expressed their concerns, and proposed the solution of “Open Enrollment.” An Open Enrollment Lottery to Central Middle School could be immediately implemented by the Board of Education for the fall of 2026. This would be a time-limited, non-precedent setting lottery, that runs for a 1 to 3 year trial period, at which point the enrollment data at Central Middle School can be re-evaluated.
The proposed enrollment lottery would ensure that all students districted to Central Middle School will be able to enroll, but will also enable all students residing in Greenwich, regardless of where they currently attend, to enroll and take advantage of the new Central Middle School building, the wonderful educators, and become part of the CMS community. This allows the new building itself to be a magnet, minimizes negative impact on student performance at a priority school, retains current team modeling, and ensures the educators, administrators, students, and families who make CMS a unique place will remain intact for the 2026-2027 year and beyond. This can be implemented immediately and has wide community support as cited in the CMS Open Enrollment Petition.
Following the 2.4 FTE cuts at Central Middle School last year, we were dismayed by the proposal to cut 4.0 FTEs at CMS next year that would change the existing two team model, which is currently in place across all three middle schools in town, into a 1.5 cross team model for CMS 6th and 7th graders. This would result in dismantling the mechanics of the existing team model, further limit the electives available to students, and create unequal class sizes. Currently, almost 20% of CMS 8th graders have a forced study hall, as no electives were available that aligned with their schedule. While some will argue this can be solved with more creative scheduling, it is just not the case. Central Middle School currently has 4 district staff members that are shared with other schools, and as a result no one is available to teach those classes in the morning. This is not a scheduling issue, but rather a direct result of the 2.4 FTE reduction last year, and has created a situation where a large portion of CMS students cannot take desired electives, such as music or art, as their schedule is controlled by the limited placements of required core classes (Math, Science, English Language Arts, and Social Studies). The scheduling limitations created by a lack of educators is an issue for high achieving students but also affects nearly every middle schooler at CMS.
The Superintendent’s Proposed 2026-2027 Operating Budget was created in part using projections from the Greenwich Public Schools Enrollment Report. The presentation states enrollment projections are accurate and any objection to the contrary is a “false narrative.” However, the projections are not accurate for Central Middle School and here is why:
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The enrollment projections are based on the cohort survival method, which predicts future enrollment based on historic ratios. This works well for schools and communities with relatively consistent and stable inputs. However, unless the model is specifically adjusted, it fails when shifts in demographics, redistricting, open enrollment, or any other anomaly occurs.
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The model was not adjusted to account for one such anomaly we have experienced over the past few years at Central Middle School – the numerous students who are districted to attend CMS but received waivers to attend either EMS or WMS to avoid attending the CMS condemned building during construction.
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The data used in the model was actual enrollment data taken from the CT Department of Education. The model was not adjusted to account for the issued waivers, individuals who for the purpose of future enrollment projections should have been considered CMS students, and were counted as either EMS or WMS students.
We do not have to look too far into the past to see another time when a school under construction resulted in inaccurate enrollment projections. New Lebanon School broke ground in the Summer of 2017 and experienced a steady decline in enrollment during its construction period which ended in the Spring of 2019. In October 2018, according to the GPS enrollment report, New Lebanon had 230 K-5 students, down from 258 the year before, and the enrollment projections predicted that just 218 K-5 students would be attending when the new school opened the following year. Fast forward to October 2019, and 260 K-5 students were enrolled, a bump that was helped by the fact families across town wanted their children to take advantage of being educated in the new building. It should be noted the 2018 New Lebanon forecast and the latest CMS forecast were both created by the same consultant.
Additionally, the following warning was included in the enrollment projections released October 2025: “A bit more caution than usual should be exercised when using these projections to make policy decisions. It is important to remember that the cohort survival method relies on observed data from the recent past. Its key assumption is that those conditions will persist … This projection should be used as a starting point for local planning. Examine the factors and assumptions underlying the method. You know your community best. Apply your knowledge of the specific conditions in Greenwich and then make adjustments as necessary” (Greenwich Public Schools Enrollment Projected to 2035). It should be noted that this warning was not included in the October 2024 projections and illustrates that extra caution must be taken into account this year when making decisions based on the enrollment estimate.
Given the number of waivers granted over the past few years, the similarities between Central Middle School and New Lebanon during their respective construction periods, the fact that this year the model used a three year average of the cohort survival rate to forecast future enrollment, and the author’s 2025 warning, we urge you to apply the knowledge of these unique conditions that were not accounted for in the 2025 enrollment projection model and reconsider the 4.0 FTE reduction proposed for Central Middle School next year. Let’s keep the winning formula of students, teachers, administrators, and families intact as we enter the new school.
Respectfully Submitted,
Central Middle School
PTA Executive Board 2025-2026